What Is Casino Bonus Expected Value And How To Calculate It?

Casino bonus expected value is a sum that a player expects to win or lose using a specific casino bonus offer. It is a rough calculation to check how much profit one can earn from a bonus. And helps people to decide whether or not they are going to accept it.

So, let’s not waste any more time. And let’s begin.

Multiple Components Calculate The Expected Value

1. Bonus Amount

The sum that the casino offers is known as the bonus amount. And it credits in the account of a player.

2. Wagering Requirements

Wagering requirements specify how many times a player must wager the bonus money before they may withdraw it.

3. Game Contributions

Game contributions show the percentage that each game type contributes to reach the wagering limit in casino bonus expected value.

4. Probability of Winning or Losing

Players can calculate the casino bonus expected value by taking these variables into account. Also, on average, the player will probably gain something from the bonus if the expected value is positive. On the other hand, a negative anticipated value means that the player tends to lose money.

Gamblers can use the casino bonus expected value as a useful tool to make better choices. Also, they can use it to find favorable bonus deals that might increase their total profitability. Players can prioritize the bonuses with the highest possible returns. One need to compare the predicted values of various bonuses while minimizing the risks associated with unfavorable bonus terms and conditions.

How To Calculate Casino Bonus Expected Value?

Calculating the casino bonus expected value is the art of any gambler who wants to increase their winning odds. In the long run, a player can often expect to win or lose the expected value. Players can select the benefits they want to pursue. And avoid by having a deep knowledge of how to calculate this value.

In the next section we will discuss in detail about the calculation.

You must first acquire some information regarding the bonus offer. Such as the bonus amount, the wagering requirements, the game contributions, and any other relevant terms and conditions. It is essential to thoroughly study the small print to make sure you follow the bonus rules.

Step 1

The first step is to calculate the wagering requirement. If the wagering requirement is 30x. And the bonus is $100. Then you would have to wager $3,000 (30 times $100) before you could withdraw any winnings.

Step 2

Next, you need to determine the game’s contributions. Every casino game differs in how it fulfills the wagering requirement. While other games, like blackjack or roulette, may have lesser contribution rates. Slots often contribute 100% towards the requirement. Let us assume that blackjack only contributes 10%. Whereas slots contribute 100%. If you decide to play only slots to satisfy the wagering requirement. Then the entire $3,000 that you wager will be counted towards the requirement. Blackjack, on the other hand, will only count towards the minimum of $300 (10% of $3,000).

Step 3

It’s time to calculate the casino bonus expected value for each game. Find out the house edge for the game you intend to play beforehand. The house edge, which illustrates the casino’s statistical advantage over the gambler, is present. For instance, if a game of blackjack has a 1% house edge. The casino guesses keeping 1% of all bets placed by players over the long run.

Step 4

Multiplying the house edge by the sum of the wagers provides the expected value for a game. Let us say you choose to play blackjack to fulfill the wagering demand. And you stake the full $3,000 on it. The expected value for this game is -$30 (1% of $3,000) if the house edge is 1%. So, while completing the wagering limit, you are advised to anticipate losing $30 on average.

Step 5

Finally, evaluate the overall casino bonus expected value by taking the game’s contributions into account. Add the results by multiplying each game’s estimated value by its contribution rate. In our example, the total expected value if you played only blackjack, which accounts for 10% of the wagering requirement, would be -$3 ($30 multiplied by 10%).


It is important to keep in mind that the casino bonus expected value is a statistical idea. And it does not guarantee specific results. Regardless of the expected value calculation, variance and luck can still have a significant impact on how a player’s gambling experience turns out.
 So, do not rely on it 100%. You will have to look at other factors too. Also, have correct data as well. It will help you to make decisions.

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